万亿帝国攻防战：当传统烟草商开始「杀死」自己的核心产品​/Trillion-empire War: When traditional tobacco-makers start "killing" their core products

在全球烟草市场，一场深刻的裂变正在上演。观察全球 TOP10 烟草企业新型产品营收占比变化曲线（2018 - 2024），能清晰看到变革趋势。曾经以传统烟草为主导的巨头们，新型产品营收占比逐年攀升。其中，菲莫国际尤为瞩目，其 2025 年 “无烟未来” 战略设定新型产品占比目标为 53%，成为市场裂变关键转折点。这一目标的提出，意味着菲莫国际将大力投入资源，推动新型产品发展，重塑自身业务格局，也为整个行业发展方向带来深远影响。

In the global tobacco market, a profound fission is under way. Observing the change curve of the global TOP10 tobacco companies' revenue share of new products (2018-2024), we can clearly see the trend of change. Once dominated by traditional tobacco giants, the proportion of new product revenue has risen year by year. Among them, Philip Morris International is particularly concerned, and its 2025 "smoke-free future" strategy sets a target of 53% of new products, which has become a key turning point in market fission. The proposal of this goal means that Philip Morris International will vigorously invest resources to promote the development of new products, reshape its own business pattern, and also bring far-reaching impact on the development direction of the entire industry.

技术层面，传统烟草商与新型替代品企业展开激烈军备竞赛。以加热不燃烧技术为例，IQOS ILUMA 智能芯升级背后构建起 38 项专利壁垒。通过这些专利，在加热过程中精准控制温度，减少有害成分生成，同时保证尼古丁释放稳定，维持消费者抽吸体验。另一方面，生物合成尼古丁领域，合成生物学企业带来颠覆烟草种植业的可能性。利用微生物发酵等技术合成尼古丁，摆脱对烟草种植依赖，降低生产成本，且产品成分更易控制，减少杂质，有望在健康减害方面取得突破。

At the technical level, traditional tobacco manufacturers are engaged in a fierce arms race with new alternatives. Taking heating non-combustion technology as an example, the IQOS ILUMA smart core upgrade has built 38 patent barriers. Through these patents, the temperature is precisely controlled during the heating process, reducing the formation of harmful ingredients, while ensuring a stable nicotine release and maintaining the consumer suction experience. On the other hand, in the field of biosynthetic nicotine, synthetic biology companies offer the potential to disrupt the tobacco growing industry. The use of microbial fermentation and other technologies to synthesize nicotine, get rid of dependence on tobacco cultivation, reduce production costs, and product ingredients are easier to control, reduce impurities, is expected to make breakthroughs in health harm reduction.

消费者迁移呈现出特定模型。成瘾者画像显示，传统吸烟者转向口含膜等新型产品存在 7 个关键决策触点，包括产品减害效果认知、使用便捷性、口感相似性、价格合理性、社交接受度、品牌影响力以及健康警示冲击。从行为经济学角度，损失厌恶心理在减害产品推广中被逆向应用。强调传统烟草危害，让消费者意识到继续使用传统烟草可能面临健康损失，从而促使他们尝试新型减害产品。

Consumer migration presents a specific model. Portraits of addicts show that there are seven key decision points for traditional smokers to switch to new products such as mouth film, including product harm reduction effect cognition, ease of use, taste similarity, price rationality, social acceptance, brand influence and health warning impact. From the perspective of behavioral economics, loss aversion has been reversely applied in the promotion of harm reduction products. To highlight the dangers of traditional tobacco and to make consumers aware of the health losses they may face if they continue to use traditional tobacco, thus encouraging them to try new harm reduction products.

地缘政治因素成为行业发展重要变量。在印尼这个全球最大烟草市场，面临平衡财政收入与 WHO 控烟压力的政策困局。烟草行业是印尼重要经济支柱，提供大量税收，但同时需遵循 WHO 控烟要求，如何制定合理政策成为难题。在美国，PMTA 认证仅 3% 电子烟产品通过审查，引发行业地震。严格认证标准使得众多电子烟企业面临产品下架、业务受阻困境，行业格局重新洗牌。

Geopolitical factors have become important variables in the development of the industry. Indonesia, the world's largest tobacco market, faces a policy dilemma of balancing fiscal revenue with the pressure of WHO to control tobacco. The tobacco industry is an important economic pillar in Indonesia, providing a large amount of tax revenue, but at the same time, it needs to comply with the tobacco control requirements of WHO, and how to formulate reasonable policies has become a problem. In the United States, only 3% of PMTA certified e-cigarette products have passed the review, causing an industry earthquake. Strict certification standards have made many e-cigarette companies face the dilemma of product removal and business obstruction, and the industry pattern has been reshuffled.